Quick Take
Spray charts provide invaluable insights into player tendencies, allowing coaches to make precise defensive adjustments. Tools like 6-4-3 Charts simplify data analysis, delivering advanced metrics in seconds, helping teams gain a competitive edge.
We got access to two accurate and professionally made college baseball spray charts.
Think you know baseball strategy? Here is your chance.
Would you shift for the first, second, both, or neither?
#1
#2
The answer, by the way, isn’t the same for everyone or every situation.
The #1 hitter above pulls the ball more to his strong side. Only 8% of the time, he puts the ball on the ground for the third basemen. Notice, too, he hits the ball in the gap between 1st and 2nd 11% of the time. If we move the 3rd basemen to cover that gap, we lose 8% on one side but gain 11% on the other.
That 3% bump might not win you the game today, but what about 1 out of 3 games? Or 1 out of 20? How many more games do you need to make the CWS regionals?
Worth it? That’s up to you, coach.
The #2 hitter (Nick Madrigal’s actual scouting report from 6-4-3 charts) is much more balanced. He’s right-handed but keeps the 2nd baseman busy enough that moving him around doesn’t look too helpful.
But notice the right fielder: this righty elevates the ball to the opposite field more than anywhere else. He struck out only 7 times his entire senior year. It’s no surprise he was picked #4 in the draft. (He didn’t strike out in the pros until his 72nd at bat.)
Imagine dealing with these questions day in and day out over thousands of pitches and dozens of opponents. Who has time to put together spray charts on every hitter?
The answer is 6-4-3 Charts.
“The difference is that it would take me 8-10 hours, whereas it takes our software less than 10 seconds to generate full-season hitting and pitching reports for an entire roster!” ~Derek Weldon
We spent time with the folks at 6-4-3 charts (Rick Ahlf, Tim Kuhn, Derek Weldon) to find out what makes their college baseball spray charts click.
How To Scout
Bat Digest: Against a guy like Nick Madrigal (Oregon State, 4th pick), what insight does a 6–4–3 chart give?
DW: He’s disciplined, doesn’t chase, and puts good swings on mistakes. Our charts show where he hits the baseball in different matchups, situations, and counts so you can better defend. Also, he’s a 31% first-pitch swing guy, meaning he’s aggressive early. He sees about 3.16 pitches per plate appearance, which is relatively low.
RA: Madrigal had one of the country’s lowest swing and miss percentages (4%). That jumps off the page.
Elite Team Tendencies
DW: We’ve shown correlations between BABIP against, WHIP, wOBA, QAB, and winning percentage. Elite D1 teams often excel in these areas.
Small Ball Tendencies
DW: We provide short game data (bunts, steals). For example, Oregon State bunted 111 times, and Arkansas only 42. These differences show how teams approach small ball.
Who Uses 6-4-3 Charts?
TK: 2018 we served 76 D1 programs (about 25%). Ten won conference championships, 16 reached a regional, 6 reached super regionals, and 3 made it to Omaha. 2019 we’ll expand to D2, D3, and D1 softball.
Defensive Suggestions
DW: We provide data, not defensive suggestions. Coaches use that data based on their philosophies, players, and conditions. We’ve seen coaches use data in fascinating ways.
When Should a Defense Shift?
DW: It depends on the program. Some shade, some shift aggressively. With data in hand—like a hitter only hitting one ground ball to the right side off a righty in 50 games—shifting is justified. Also, consider your own pitcher’s tendencies.
Has the Shift Ruined Baseball?
I love the shift. It’s a chess match. Coaches consider many data points before shifting. It’s exciting to be part of that process and help coaches save time.
Other Adjustments Made
We’re more than spray charts. We provide advanced metrics, matchups, and situational tendencies. Coaches also use data for their own player development. Some teams use it strategically to “roll the dice” if they lack top-tier talent.
A 6-4-3 Scouting Report
We don’t measure W/L impact directly. Teams turn over players frequently, but we aim to provide a competitive advantage. Ideally, everyone uses 6–4–3 charts, making it a fair fight.
Data In, Data Out
Our database includes all games and generates consistent, high-quality data. We agree with team stats >99% of the time. We quickly handle massive amounts of data to provide full-season reports in under 10 seconds.
