The BBCOR Test Isn’t Broke and Other Things We Learned From Tracking NCAA Baseball Bats

We tracked bat usage and the at-bat results of more than 30 NCAA baseball teams at the start of the 2021 season. We hoped to find themes in the dataset that lent commentary on BBCOR bats.

Is The BBCOR Test Broken?

Most in the industry agree with the sentiment that BBCOR bats perform the same, and the certification standard has succeeded in its goal to govern real-world bat performance.

Yet, even with that widespread acknowledgment, it’s common to see social media commentators suggest certain bats are hot. Granted, claiming a bat is “hot” or “hits nukes” doesn’t suggest it is somehow beating the test, per se.

But, then, what is it suggesting?

When someone says this bat hits nukes, are they saying it is just like most other bats? Maybe they’re saying, considering its swing weight and our hitter’s strength, it’s just as good as what we’ve always used. Or is it suggesting that there is something special about this particular bat’s exit velocities that you can’t find elsewhere?

Likely, they aren’t thinking much about what they’re saying. Nukes and bombs and missiles and tanks are all great words in the bat space. But the impression given implies that the bat is somehow unique. And you can’t have something special if everything else is not.

Most companies have figured out how to economically meet the BBCOR standard- we don’t think this is a secret anymore. If they don’t know how to meet it, they can buy a bat from overseas, and that does. This makes sense, considering that BESR (2005ish – 2013ish) bats were hotter than BBCOR bats. As any good libertarian could tell, governing is much easier than inventing.

Also, if we claim a particular BBCOR bat is hot, then the odds are not on our side. By our last count, the BBCOR testing facility currently approves close to 2,600 BBCOR bats. After a couple of bumpy years in its onset, only one bat, the 2020 Meta in a 33, has lost its certification.

The score in the last eight years is about 2600 to 1. If we think a bat is “hot,” then there’s a 99.96% chance we’ve been fooled.

These odds are why we can’t help but roll our eyes when we see someone’s “exit speed test” show results 3+mph different–as if the swing weight, pitch type, and hitter bias had nothing to do with that outcome. It’s not the trampoline effect of the bat. Simply put, the BBCOR test is not broken.

2021 NCAA Bat Usage

The data we collected from elite D1 players and programs lend some proof that the BBCOR test is not broken.

We spent several days poring over the data we collected in the hopes of seeing some trends. Frustratingly, we found nothing that would suggest a certain brand, model, or hitter type had more success than another.

Bat Contracts Bias

(The Wilson section above represents Arkansas, which uses Slugger and DeMarini bats, both of which are owned by Wilson.)

Bat contracts change the nature of what bats are used at the collegiate level. As early as 2013, companies like Easton paid schools like LSU (#22) $150,000 annually to use their bats exclusively.

Today, LSU is a Marucci school. Who knows how much they paid for those rights?

One might think that such bias makes tracking bat usage a useless commentary on BBCOR bat achievements.

But not so fast.

The desire to win and succeed at the plate and the windfall of recruiting and cash that follows success at the D1 level far outpace any incentivized contact a sponsorship could put together. Major programs will not put themselves at a measurable disadvantage to make a buck.

Consider this, too.

Serious college teams use high-tech equipment to measure ball flight. Players and coaches have access to this data, and there are competent enough people at the university level to devise a test to determine which BBCOR bats hit the ball better.

With that in hand, do we see competitive D1 programs using the same bat?

Most Popular NCAA Bats

Despite all those resources and a huge desire to win, the bats used by the top 25 teams do not coalesce around specific models.

For example, DeMarini makes up 37% of the bats at this level. Less than half of DeMarini players use the same bat. Or, said differently, more than half the NCAA D1 players required to swing DeMarini, who undoubtedly have access to more exit velocity data and resources than any of us, mere mortals, come up with a different result for their optimal bat.

Between the 75 different players we found that use DeMarini, 15 different DeMarini models were used, ranging from 2013 through 2021. That’s hardly a consensus–and it’s even the most coalescing we see.

For the 189 players we tracked on the 21 top NCAA D1 teams, 46 different BBCOR bats were used from six different brands. That works out to about four players for every different bat. Seventeen of those 46 bats were used by a single player.

If a BBCOR bat or two has somehow eclipsed the standard and become “hot,” the players, coaches, and institutions with the most to gain from this insight have failed to figure it out.

Aluminum vs Composite vs One Piece vs Two Piece

Here is a rundown of the bat types we found.

• Six players in the 189 we tracked used a composite barrel. Three came from the Maxum, while the others came from the CF.
• Two-piece vs. One-piece is a battle.
• Most NCAA D1 Folks swing endloaded bats.

For a long time, the general consensus regarding single-piece vs. two-piece bats was that a single-piece bat transfers more power to the ball and, therefore, is preferred by stronger hitters.

For several months, we’ve tried to help people see that such was sales pitching. The ball exits the barrel before any flex occurs, so stiffer bats don’t mean more power; they just mean more feedback. Better hitters tend to prefer an honest bat—one that tells no lies.

That shenanigans pitch was supported by the idea that most NCAA players used stiff, inexpensive single-piece bats. These guys were power hitters, so they needed all the power they could get.

However, the tides are changing, and as Dr. King once said, the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice. Indeed, the arc of the truth of baseball bats is long, but it bends toward reality. Stiffer bats don’t hit the ball harder. But stiffer bats are honest. And the better you are as a hitter, the more honestly you want your bat.

The advent of The Goods, Select PWR, and the CAT 9 Connect is ending the single-piece bat argument awkwardly.

Bat Age

To our knowledge, there have never been any tests about the longevity of aluminum bats. Considering the vast majority of D1 players use aluminum we think the years they use might give some insight into how long those bats last.

Over 10% of NCAA bats at the most elite levels are older than 2019. It’s impossible to know when these bats were first put in use. But, looking at some of them, it appears like a very long time ago.

Aluminum bats last for several years. Is that four, five, or six? We aren’t sure. But, according to some of the best in the alloy bat game, it is atleast that much.

Bat Brand Team Bias

One of our observations during this process of bat usage is a note of sports psychology.

We recently listened to the book Think Like a Monk. He gave the following thought, which we modified a bit to be about bats.

‘You don’t care about what you think about your bat as much as you care what others think about what you think about your bat.’

You may need to read that sentence twice.

We wear the same uniforms, stay in the same hotels, and often have the same bat bags, cleats, and warm-up gear. We do this consciously for the camaraderie of a team and its manifest benefits on the field.

Would it be surprising to discover we do this subconsciously with our bats, too?

Maybe, in some measure, our bat choice is more of a sense of belonging than a sense of who is the best performer. We might not consciously want to belong to the crowd on Instagram, the hitters on YouTube, or our teammate’s good graces. But when comparing schools under the same bat contracts, what else will we conclude?

The following graphics illustrate the point.

UCF vs. Ole Miss

For example, a team like UCF and Ole Miss (#4) are Easton schools. However, UCF uses the Maxum while Ole Miss (#4) is very heavy on Easton’s Fuze XL and Alpha.

TCU vs. Florida vs. Vanderbilt

Also, DeMarini is the sponsor at TCU, Florida, and Vanderbilt. TCU’s lineup is riddled with the 2021 The Goods One; Florida is heavy on the 2020/21 Voodoo One, while Vanderbilt is almost all The Goods. Again, three schools were using the same bat company, and all coalesced around three different bats.

Florida State vs. Tennessee

Florida State and Tennessee are both Louisville Slugger schools. Most Seminole players use the Omaha, while most Tennessee players use the Select PWR.

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech

Maybe the best evidence that no BBCOR bat is of particular advantage is looking at the schools with no bat contract. Arkansas (#2) and Texas Tech (#6) don’t require a specific brand. Of the 18 players we watched from both teams, ten different BBCOR bats with a year range from 2017 through 2021.

Of note, a Razorback and a Red Raider have a 56% (5/9) and 78% (7/9) chance of swinging the same bat as their teammate. But what are the chances of a Razorback swinging the same bat as a Red Raider?

Zero.

Is there any chance that two teams with unaffiliated bat contracts, a mountain of resources, and data at their fingertips, who rank in the top 10 of collegiate baseball, can’t figure out the hottest bat from the last 10 years?

Or, is it just so evident at this point that there are many BBCOR bats, from past and present, that all perform the same?

It turns out that the most predictive variable determining the bat usage of an elite D1 collegiate ballplayer is not where they are in the lineup or what bat contract their school has. It also has nothing to do with being new, old, heavy, light, or two-piece. Instead, the number one variable predicting what bat you use is if your teammate uses the bat, too. Our mind is blown.

Bat Performance

Another way to look at bat performance is by their statistics. We aggregated the hitting statistics from our 189 players by bat model.

To be sure, we aren’t sure this information is that useful. As we’ve said, if many BBCOR bats perform the same, the fact these bats made these ranked lists might be more luck than insight.

Also, we should note that many of these players may change the bat they use and make the data below inaccurate. We watched a game in February/March where the player started. We then assigned that bat they used in that game to all the statistics the player generated this season. So, for example, if a player had changed their bat after we saw them hit (which is unlikely but possible), then we’ve accumulated stats for a particular bat that should not count. Does that make the data useless? Maybe. But we aren’t sure, even if we did it perfectly, it would be useful anyways.

Home Runs per At Bat

We added each player’s home runs and accumulated that data based on the bat they use. Then, we divided that number by the number of at-bats where that bat was involved. We eliminated bats that have seen less than 75 at-bats.

We won’t comment much on these as we aren’t sure they are terribly useful. However, we will note that the Maxum Ultra is a light-swinging bat, as is the Rawlings VELO from 2017 and the Victus Vandal. Bats like the Voodo Insane, 5150 from 2013, and The Goods are heavier-swinging bats.

Three of the bats are two-piece; one is full composite, and the other 5 are full aluminum. What does that mean? Your guess is as good as ours.

Traditional thinking would say this list should be full of single-piece aluminum bats with a heavy swing weight. Of the top 9, only one falls squarely into that category: 2013 Rawlings 5150. The rest would not be what your average bat fitter would suggest.

It’s almost like these elite hitters understand what works for them.

Batting Average By Bat

We did the same with the batting average but moved the minimum bats to 100.

Also, the swing weights on these bats are not close to each other. The 718 is one of the heavier swinging BBCOR bats. The Fuze XL is also endloaded. The Voodoo One is light, and the CAT 9 is no heavier than balanced+. There seems to be no reason for a specific bat to be on here. Three of these bats are two-piece. The remaining six are single-piece alloys.

Traditional thinking, again, suggests that the base hitter type at the collegiate level would prefer a two-piece bat with a balanced to light swing. They might also like a composite barrel, but that’s more of a high school thing than a D1 College thing. We’d put the Voodoo One and the Victus Nox in that category of bats. The other seven bats make very little sense here–at least as the traditionalist bat fitter would have it.

Again, as if the hitters here have enough experience to care little about what traditional thinkers think…

Where We Go From Here

Ultimately, we think much of what is above is excellent news. In particular, the right bat for you is a personal quest. It’s like young Arthur pulling the sword from the stone. No one can tell you what’s best and what’s hot. Big hitters don’t need to swing single-piece aluminum with an end load. Small guys with twitch don’t have to be light-swinging two-piece composite hitters.

No, you don’t have to pick a bat everyone likes. You don’t have to pick the bat your friend said to use or some commentator and Instagram or YouTube said it is a must-have or perfect for your style.

There is no doubt that you need to find the right size and swing weight. Heavier bats will slow down your swing, and lighter bats will give you less power. But being on time is the most important thing in hitting. We can’t just throw out all we know about physics because the BBCOR test works.

But, in the end, every bat can be someone’s bat—from a $20 eBay buy to a $700 custom. Maybe most useful is the belief that you have picked a bat that allows you to belong. If D1 Bat usage has shown us anything, it’s that—to belong with the best—you don’t need to buy what is most expensive or what social media told you was the hottest. Instead, it would be best if you found what works for you. How do you do that?

Practice.