Quick Take
Cage exit speed tests might identify a bat with the “most pop” under controlled conditions, but they don’t guarantee better results on the field. By understanding the limitations of exit speed measurements and considering factors like swing weight, comfort, and real-game conditions, you’ll be more prepared to choose a bat that truly delivers.
When most players and parents go searching for the “hottest bats” or “baseball bats with the most pop,” they often expect a simple list of models that promise jaw-dropping exit velocities. Indeed, a few quick swings in a cage can suggest one bat has the most pop or that another is the hottest bat ever made. But what if we told you that measuring a bat’s exit speed in a controlled environment doesn’t guarantee top-level game performance?
In the following sections, we’ll explain why the cage exit speed tests (like those comparing BBCOR vs. USSSA exit velocity) don’t always translate directly to real-game results. We’ll also explore why single-piece bats often appear to outperform two-piece bats in these tests and how factors like swing weight, hitter confidence, and in-game conditions challenge the notion that “what baseball bat has the most pop” can be determined by exit speed alone.
By understanding the limitations of exit speed testing, you can be a more informed consumer. This will help you consider more than just exit velocities when choosing the “bats with the most pop,” and appreciate that the “best bat” for you depends on factors beyond what a radar gun might suggest.
Why Single Pieces Win Exit Speed Tests
We have learned much of these exit speed problems through trial and error. We know of no other source collecting, or at least publishing, its exit speed data. That leaves us in uncharted waters when finding how helpful the data may be. As a general rule, we have noticed that stiffer bats with a heavier load balance tend to (but don’t always) perform better in cage exit speed tests than their two-piece counterparts. To some extent, we think this phenomenon is a function of physics rather than actual game potential. Stiffer bats with a higher MOI transfer more energy, ergo speed/distance, to the ball and ultimately hit the ball farther.
But what about bat speed? Doesn’t the higher MOI (swing weight) affect bat speed and ball exit speed on these heavy single-piece aluminum bats?
Yes! But, in cage tests where the hitters get all the time in the world to repeatedly time up the same pitch, we find that bat speeds don’t change much despite a change in the MOI. This is the fundamental bias created by cage-testing bats. Further, because companies don’t make bats based on swing weight but instead on length and weight, we don’t control for swing weight. Instead, we measure the 33/30 BBCORs, for example, against each other. As we discussed elsewhere, swing weight is vital in measuring ball exit speed. Therefore, it is unsurprising that bats with higher MOIs do better in our tests.
So, we are left to collect data that does NOT account for the ability a lighter swinging bat gives a player at the plate in a game. Nor do we account for the confidence two-piece, sting-free bats give younger players at the game plate. In short, we feel the exit speed data from the cage work we collect overstates the game ability of single-piece bats (especially in younger players).
That is not to say we think the below data is useless. Instead, we believe it is remarkable in so many ways. But make no mistake: ball exit speeds measured in a cage are at least a grave stone’s throw from finding the best-performing bat for you. For those discussions, we take you here.
Swing Speed Matters
We used the same size bats in our test (31/21 USSSA bats and 33/30 BBCOR, for example), but we didn’t control for actual swing weight. Swing weight, you will recall, is different than the stated weight, has more to do with the distribution of the weight in the bats than the total weight, and is the driving force in the actual collision potential of a bat. So, in other words, the actual thing that determines the bat’s mass at impact HAS NO BEARING in the tests below. This leaves the results lacking, at best, in a significant piece of scientific validity.
We Don’t Play in a Vacuum
The idea of a vacuum is a scientific principle in which all things are constant except the variable being measured. For our tests below, we repeatedly recreate the same scenario while only changing one thing: the bat. We have captured the swing data on nearly 3,000 different hits with 60 different bats.
We do a decent job of controlling for the things we can. The pitch speed, ball type, hitter, elevation, humidity, and recording device stay constant.
But we have yet to invent (or buy) a hitting robot. One can recreate the same swing speed and bat attack angle with perfection regardless of the grip feel or predisposition to a bat. We capture many swings for each hitter, but at what number is a data set significant enough to drive reliable numbers? We don’t know—and neither does anyone else. Expect our data to improve over the years, but this Rapsodo technology (and any ball flight data) is new enough that we don’t know.
We also do not de-identify the bats, maybe to our detriment. Even if our hitters are pretty good at believing they are unbiased, we still don’t have an excellent feel for how much their bias affects the data. There is a good chance our hitter’s bias comes through with the bats regardless of our ability to control some of the variables that control ball flight.
Is Exit Speed All That Matters?
No. Here’s why:
The ability of a barrel to produce the speed of a batted ball is vital in a bat’s overall performance. Measuring the exit speed is the definition of the bat’s pop, or as some say, how hot a bat is.
A barrel’s ability to produce a fast-flying ball is a significant consideration when paying real money for a bat—it may be the most important. We offer this article in response to the many players and parents searching for the hottest bat or bat with the most pop. Our data is independent of any manufacturer or vendor.
However, ball exit speed is not the only serious consideration before buying a bat. Enforced performance standards have narrowed the barrel performance gap so that ball exit speeds, or barrel pop, have become less differentiating. Consider things like price, feel on mishits, durability, warranty, swing weight, and a host of other bat features, which play a significant part in finding the best bat for you.
Choosing Your Bat
When determining what baseball bat has the most pop for your unique style, it’s critical to consider more than cage-tested exit speeds. Durability, comfort at contact, price, and the bat’s balance (swing weight) significantly affect how effective a bat will feel and perform at the plate. Even the “hottest” bats in a controlled environment may not translate into better in-game results if they don’t suit your hitting style, strength, or swing mechanics. In other words, before investing in a bat solely based on its exit speed hype, remember that long-term performance, feel, and personal fit can matter as much—if not more—than raw numbers.
Methodology Highlights
We used the same hitter over multiple sessions to gather enough data to draw meaningful conclusions. After every 3 or 5 recorded swings, we switched bats to ensure a fair comparison. All our swing data was captured using a Rapsodo device and then exported to a spreadsheet for further analysis. We filtered out obvious misreads (like zeroed-out speeds or unrealistically high ball exit speeds) and removed extreme mishits that didn’t reflect the bat’s normal performance. In short, we worked hard to control what we could, making sure each bat got plenty of solid contact before we crunched the numbers.
Environmental & Variable Constraints
Even though we tried to maintain consistent conditions—like using the same pitch speed, ball type, location, and hitter—there’s only so much we can control. Factors like humidity, altitude, and a player’s confidence with a particular bat can change ball exit speeds in ways we can’t fully recreate or predict. Because we’re not swinging in a climate-controlled lab and we don’t have a hitting robot, our results aren’t guaranteed to match what you’ll see in your situation. In other words, real-world hitting is messy, and our test environment can only get so close to it.
Conceptual Insights on Data Significance
It’s important to understand that statistically significant proof is hard to achieve when testing bats. Even with many recorded hits, the natural variability of human swings and the complexity of ball flight make it challenging to claim one bat is definitively better than another. Averages and top speeds might look good on paper, but slight differences could just be random chance rather than a true performance gap. While this information is helpful, it’s not a final verdict—just a piece of the puzzle.
Composite vs. Aluminum Note
Our testing also revealed that aluminum barrels performed better right out of the wrapper than many of the composite options. It’s possible composites need more break-in time or a higher swing speed to really shine. As we continue to gather and update our data, we may find that composite bats eventually catch up and deliver on their promise. For now, just know that initial cage exit speeds don’t always tell the whole story, especially when comparing materials like composite and aluminum.
