Quick Take
Cespedes' 2014 throw beats Bo Jackson's legendary cannon. Statistical analysis proves it: better velocity, accuracy, and game impact. Pre-Statcast era comparisons are tough, but physics favors Yoenis.
In 2014, the blog and Twitter sphere (now X-sphere) erupted after Yoenis Cespedes made a throw from left field to gun down Howie Kendrick at home, following a misplay on a Mike Trout hit. But was Yoenis Cespedes’ throw the greatest ever?
Update: Of course, with Statcast today, this answer would have been much easier to decide. Deciding the *best* was much more an art pre doppler radar at every field.
Not many have been bold enough to claim Cespedes’ throw as the “best,” but people are at least trying to put it in context. A quick Google search shows Cespedes’ recent throw making the top 10 in most lists, but none I’ve seen call it the best. The best is usually reserved for Bo Jackson’s throw in 1989 (often called “The Throw”), Jose Guillen’s “mutant” throw in 1998, or Yasiel Puig’s double-play ball throw in 2013. All are fantastic throws by any measure.
“The Throw” by Bo Jackson, 1989
Let me explain why Cespedes’ throw might be the best ever. For starters, the answer is obviously debatable. Bo Jackson, from the warning track, lit up an extremely fast Harold Reynolds who was sprinting for a winning run. Jose Guillen wins the longest throw award, showcasing accuracy that pitchers can only hope for at a fraction of the distance. Puig’s rookie season and antics were overshadowed by a heads-up play and a laser-guided missile that ended an important game with a rare 8-3 double play.
Left Field Foul Pole Says 316 Feet. Bo Jackson is chasing after the ball. What an Amazing Resolution from the 1980s.
Jose Guillen Waits at The Wall 375 Feet From Home Plate, About to ‘Unleash the Kraken’. The 1990 Resolution is not much better than the 1980s.
Cespedes, on the other hand, botched a routine two-hopper. It may be that Cespedes is doing this on purpose—and who wouldn’t with an arm like that—but making up for a bad play with a good one might not be commendable.
Speed as the Deciding Factor
Objectively, it’s hard to argue that the best throw isn’t the fastest. Knowing the distance of the throw and the hang time, we can calculate the speed at which the ball left the player’s hand. Dr. Alan Nathan’s baseball trajectory calculator provides an excellent tool for this, along with Excel’s “solver” add-in for precise calculations.
When calculating exit speed, variables such as humidity, wind speed, ball weight, and rotation must be considered. Any of these could significantly affect the numbers. For example:
- Elevation: Jose Guillen’s throw was in Denver, Bo Jackson’s in Seattle, Puig’s in Los Angeles, and Cespedes’ in Anaheim.
- Distance: Bo Jackson threw from the left field warning track, marking 316 feet at the foul pole. Jose Guillen’s throw, from 375 feet in right field, was to third base. Puig threw from around the 365 sign to first. Cespedes was about 25 feet in from the 347 sign in left field.
Calculations and Comparisons
After analyzing the video, geometry, and Dr. Nathan’s calculator, the data suggests Cespedes’ throw had an exit speed of 109 mph, 1.1 mph faster than Bo Jackson’s. Jose Guillen’s hang time and distance might have made his throw the fastest at sea level, but at Denver’s altitude, it clocked in at 106 mph.
Before dismissing this as implausible, consider the room for error in these calculations. Variables such as exact distance, wind, ball defects, or video feed skips could all skew the results. Additionally, the margin between 1st and 3rd place is less than three mph, and Bo Jackson’s throw is only 1.1 mph slower than Cespedes’.
Conclusion
Based on the data and careful analysis, Yoenis Cespedes’ throw from left field on June 10, 2014, might be the fastest at 109 mph. Whether speed alone makes it the greatest is up for debate, but if all four throws discussed were equally accurate and impeccably timed, speed might tip the scales.
